So i went to renew my drivers license last week. I had to give permission to pre-register my information to the United States Draft. Are they bringing it back?
I have been doing a lot of research online, and haven't found anything solid as for information goes. However, 90% of the websites i went to, and articals agreed on one thing. If we stay in Iraq, it wouldn't be impossible thinking to have a 2006 Military Draft.
Don't get me wrong, i support our troops. However, i strongly disagree with George Bush. All of our original reasonings for being in Iraq, changes half way through to unrelated things. I do not want to be forced to fight something i don't feel is right. Why do you think the Military can't find more troops? No one wants to fight this time around. But back on track.
Does anyone know any additional information about this? I'm very concerned about what this means for me. I've thought about going into a branch a while back, but strongly decided my heart was not into fighting this war and the cause i disagree with. I just can't do it as much as i appreciate what the United States stands for. I just don't agree we should try to fight a war on Terrorism; you won't win. No matter how hard you fight, you can't win. There will always be extremist out there that hate us, or someone else. Always. You can't fight chaos with chaos.
I'd rather go to jail or pay thousands in fines than go over there and be forced to serve. THats not right. Not by a long shot. Forcing kids to go over there, is not freedom. And is not what we stand for as a nation.
I know this is a sensitive subject for lots of people. However, i do respect those who believe in the war and believe in Bush. Everyone has their own thinking and their own way of doing things. I just want to know if theres information out there to find out exactly whats happening. Because apparently, the Bush Administration isn't very coming-forth with it.
Thank you.
Cya
jct
11-16-2005, 09:21 PM
the draft never really went away
VanillaRice
11-16-2005, 09:26 PM
the draft never really went away
Explain...
killerxromances
11-16-2005, 09:27 PM
the draft never really went away
Technically it did, a major aspect of it did. But, volunteer - draft didn't. At least, thats my understanding. We got rid of the, we force you to come to war or pay the price. I could be wrong, but i do have a well understanding of whats going on. I consider myself lucky to keep myself focused on whats going on, lots of people don't. Especially at my age. Its horrible to think a full draft can take place again.
If the military can't get enough volunteers, and can't get those in the service to renew, shouldn't that be a wake up call for the administration to pull us out of there or reconsider every reason we are there? Yes. Will it? No.
I really hope someone on ScionLife knows exactly whats going to happen. :pray: :tap:
Cya
peteyd
11-16-2005, 09:28 PM
There are technicallities(?) you can get away with from the draft, Like if you have one brother and he has already been drafted or is currently enlisted you cannot be drafted so you your family line can be continued(thank you saving private ryan guy sorry forgot his name) also if you have any major medical issues asthma, bad backs, bad knees, flat feet things along that line. Hornet is right its never gone away they just have stricter guidelines now and stuff.
Gonzo_xb
11-16-2005, 09:28 PM
Did you register when you turned 18? Even though there is no longer a draft, you are still legally required to register with the selective service when you turn 18. Every 18 year old male in the country is required to do this.
etli
11-16-2005, 09:32 PM
You're required to register with the selective service when you turn 18. The government has always had the "right" to draft. Well, alright, people will debate the word but the fed has always kept that power in the event of war. I'm sure there's probably a hundred websites out there debating the legality, effects, etc of a draft. Just google it.
killerxromances
11-16-2005, 09:46 PM
There are technicallities(?) you can get away with from the draft, Like if you have one brother and he has already been drafted or is currently enlisted you cannot be drafted so you your family line can be continued(thank you saving private ryan guy sorry forgot his name) also if you have any major medical issues asthma, bad backs, bad knees, flat feet things along that line. Hornet is right its never gone away they just have stricter guidelines now and stuff.
I have an older sister that hasn't served or anything along the lines of that. I would rather go than her. As for conditions for medical. I have a medical history of mild-sever depression, i used to take medication and went to therapy for a good year-to-two years for it. I'm better now, but like everyone, i have bad days and good days. Sometimes worse than most but i consider myself average now i suppose. Anyway, i don't have a history of bad backs, or bad knees but i don't know.
I registered to vote, so i'm assuming i'm registered for selective services. I'm 19, this was the first time i noticed a Draft information requirement. I probably was registered, but i don't know. Its more real when theres talk of a major Draft coming back into play. I don't know if past medical issues count as medical reasoning to not be able to go over there. I'm not really looking for an excuse not to go, i'm more looking for information as to whats really going on with the Draft. If its really going to come back, and military call thousands for duty or face the consequences. Or, if its just rumors linked to newpapers, forums and websites.
Thanks for the information so far.
Cya
jct
11-16-2005, 09:49 PM
they forced us to register when i was still in H.S. :roll:
if i ever get drafted i wanna be the first one to die but thats just me
TheScionicMan
11-16-2005, 10:04 PM
http://www.sss.gov/
Kremtok
11-16-2005, 10:04 PM
Registering for the Selective Service is required for all males over age 18, whether you have a driver's license or not, whether you vote or not, and whether you want to you or not. So the person who suggested that the draft never went away is partially correct: Our government reserves the right to call any male over 18 and under 26 to military or civil service. Check out http://www.sss.gov/ for more details.
That said, we haven't had a draft in well over thirty years. Right now, we have plenty of volunteers joining the Armed Forces (or Uniformed Services, depending on your political preferences), so we don't need to force people in the military. Even though most services have been below their recruiting goals for the last few years, we still have plenty of troops.
Finally, as an active duty enlisted person myself, I can tell you that the vast majority of we in the military do not want draftees working with us. It's just like working any other job with somebody who doesn't want to be there, only you have to trust that person with your life and the lives of all of your coworkers.
etli
11-16-2005, 10:18 PM
Well, hopefully, you put the draftees, the severly near-sighted, the very rotund, and the very stupid in the REMF and chickensh!t positions.
killerxromances
11-16-2005, 10:20 PM
Registering for the Selective Service is required for all males over age 18, whether you have a driver's license or not, whether you vote or not, and whether you want to you or not. So the person who suggested that the draft never went away is partially correct: Our government reserves the right to call any male over 18 and under 26 to military or civil service. Check out http://www.sss.gov/ for more details.
That said, we haven't had a draft in well over thirty years. Right now, we have plenty of volunteers joining the Armed Forces (or Uniformed Services, depending on your political preferences), so we don't need to force people in the military. Even though most services have been below their recruiting goals for the last few years, we still have plenty of troops.
Finally, as an active duty enlisted person myself, I can tell you that the vast majority of we in the military do not want draftees working with us. It's just like working any other job with somebody who doesn't want to be there, only you have to trust that person with your life and the lives of all of your coworkers.
Thank you and the other person for the website, i'll check it out. If i did go over there, obviously i would do the best i can given the situation and would try to earn the trust of others..Because thats really all you have in order to survive. However, the fact i wouldn't want to be there, i wouldn't be as well trained in every situation like you and others that are there. With that said, it would be a mistake to bring those back. But anyway, thanks for your information.
And don't get me wrong, i do support the troops like yourself. I just don't support the justified cause that claims you to be there.
Cya
Chillaxin206
11-16-2005, 10:46 PM
Thank God for asthma.....nuff said.
Tomas
11-16-2005, 10:51 PM
I'm old enough (and disabled enough and have already served anyway) not to have a DIRECT interest in a renewal of a requirement for involuntary military service (draft).
Putting that aside, the numbers on volunteers and the current (and potential future) numbers needed by national commitments almost demand a draft to be re-instated despite the shrub's repeated denials that anything like that could possibly happen while he's in office. Depends on what you trust, I guess, the shrub or the numbers... :blah:
I hope it doesn't happen, but I see NOTHING to prevent it at this time. There was an active draft when I went into the military (and served in Viet Nam) but I was not drafted - my US Army draft notice arrived after I was already in basic training in the US Air Force. :relief:
So long as "The Government" is pursuing ends the mass of young adults agrees with, there is no problem filling our military with highly qualified and dedicated volunteers - in fact for a long while the requirements were quite tight and we were turning away a lot of volunteers. We could afford to be picky. :)
However, any time "The Government" begins doing something unpopular or questionable, the support - and the number of quality volunteers - goes down.
Right now the services are playing games with not allowing people to leave, and using up our "reserves" because we just don't have anywhere near enough active military for what we've been committed to.
I would not be at all surprised to see the return of a limited, active, draft...
"Wars are never fought by those who start them."
====
I'll end with the 'required' Heinlein quote:
No state has an inherent right to survive through conscript troops, and in the long run no state ever has. — Robert A. Heinlein
jct
11-16-2005, 10:59 PM
one more year and i'll be free from the draft hopefuly!!!
killerxromances
11-16-2005, 11:44 PM
A few friends of mine, that personally know a few people over their said they told them its not that bad. Worst part is not being able to come home when they were originally told. I don't know, maybe it depends on what part you are working at. It seems to me a lot of things aren't being told to us that probably should. Of course the Government is going to keep things from us to protect our sanity. But things like this, we should always be informed. IMO.
Who knows, i guess when time comes and they start calling people up something will happen. Otherwise, i shouldn't worry about it because its not then, and i have a lot going for me now. I sure hope this crap ends soon, the econmy i'm sure will start showing even more the harm this war has done.
No one ever wins a war, both sides lose with fatalities, dept, and less than a victory away from reality.
Cya
chucksu
11-17-2005, 12:40 AM
This is intersting.. Its really hard saying... This is my view, even though Im in military..
1: If a draft is issued, as humans we still have the right to say "no". The government would then try to use force to "punish" you into doing what they want. I see this as a big big problem. The fact stands, that the civilian to military ratio is so high, that if civilians wanted to, they could over run the military. So by forcing a draft on modern america, I would guess something like a second civil war might break out & would hurt the American economy & leave us more open to a forign attack..
This is just my views on the idea of a draft & what could come about from it. I still figure if you want to serve, serve if you can. If you dont, dont. The need for a military styled force, is just another way for a group of ppl to say "I got bigger balls then you!" :lalala:
The may be a bunch of liberals, but everything they say is true and backed up my numerous sources.
All the framework is in place. Iran, China, North Korea, Syria, Iraq if things really go south. They have been screwing people, keeping them over past their commitments, extending tours etc. If something else hits the fan and we need to go in, then there is no way we can do it unless we get some serious manpower and no matter how many NASCAR's they sponsor sooner or later, if Mr. Bush's vision is to be completed, they are going to have to start drafting people.
It will probably be bogus and I'll be dead set against it, but if there is a draft I'll go over there before my brothers do. I'm not going to run off to Canada and let some poor person with no options take the L. Sometimes life sucks and you gotta do your duty as an American. It might be wrong and it might be unjust, but what can you do. You live here and you gotta play by the rules. I don't want to be remembered in 20 years as someone who weaseled my way out.
peteyd
11-17-2005, 04:08 PM
Well it could be like it is in Singapore where EVERYONE has to serve X amount of time int he military(X=male or female) and then be in the reserves for 7-10 years after that (not sure will find out though)
squirrel
11-17-2005, 04:24 PM
Will there be a draft? IMHO, no. Why? There are too many anti-military types in this country to have one.
BUT, I have noticed after serving in Europe, other societies seem to benefit from having people serve 2 years in the military. But then again, who am I to say serving benefits society.
On the flip side, the military is not for everybody. Some just cannot handle having an authority figure telling them what to do and when to do it.
The may be a bunch of liberals, but everything they say is true and backed up my numerous sources.
All the framework is in place. Iran, China, North Korea, Syria, Iraq if things really go south. They have been screwing people, keeping them over past their commitments, extending tours etc. If something else hits the fan and we need to go in, then there is no way we can do it unless we get some serious manpower and no matter how many NASCAR's they sponsor sooner or later, if Mr. Bush's vision is to be completed, they are going to have to start drafting people.
It will probably be bogus and I'll be dead set against it, but if there is a draft I'll go over there before my brothers do. I'm not going to run off to Canada and let some poor person with no options take the L. Sometimes life sucks and you gotta do your duty as an American. It might be wrong and it might be unjust, but what can you do. You live here and you gotta play by the rules. I don't want to be remembered in 20 years as someone who weaseled my way out.
Interesting thought. But its a miracle to make it to the next day let alone 20 years from now. That would be the least of my worries. I'm just not comfortable with the idea of war, and if by some miracle I had to go I could not be in a position to have to shoot and kill someone. I don't feel like that is my duty in life, nor do I feel I have the ability to carry that out. The funny thing is, we feel like the government has power to do alot of things, but we must realize the government only has power because we give it. You can only rule over people who want to be ruled over, and if they decide otherwise, then there's nothing a government can do. Some people are just not physically or mentally able to deal with a war situation. Like it was said earlier, no one wins in a war.....
WeDriveScions
11-18-2005, 04:15 PM
They didn't want me orgininally, turned me down because of my asthma.... so they can't get me now!
I even have the letter....
I wish they'd have all US teens serve in some capacity in the armed forces, like many of the other countries in the world... There is something to be said to serving something outside of yourself...
Joehnn
11-18-2005, 06:40 PM
I believe all citizens should be required to serve 2 years of gov't service?
Armed Services,
Peace Corps,
Americorps,
etc.
It would teach them to appreciate the freedom they have now, thanks to past draftees and volunteers. :clap:
Now drop and give me ten. :P
Serialk1llr
11-18-2005, 07:30 PM
To play devil's advocate:
What about those whom belive/practice non-violence? Certainly we as a country have no more right to infringe upon their decision to that set of choices than anyone else's choices for whatever reason. Once we start forcing majority opinion/rule upon the minority, we become exactly what we are fighting, oppressors to personal/collective freedom.
IMO I agree with what a lot fo you have said. Freedom is not free. Military is for those physically/mentally capable of handling it, bla bla bla.
rolex87
11-18-2005, 08:12 PM
personally as a student of history i've and been told in interviews that volunteers with drive fight better than those thrown into the fight. i'd rather have maximum personell devoted to the war effort rathern than being in charge of rounding up all the deserters
killerxromances
11-18-2005, 08:59 PM
I believe all citizens should be required to serve 2 years of gov't service?
Armed Services,
Peace Corps,
Americorps,
etc.
It would teach them to appreciate the freedom they have now, thanks to past draftees and volunteers. :clap:
Now drop and give me ten. :P
I know freedom isn't free. And i respect that in many ways. However, for me at least, and i know others say the same, its not about defending our freedom. Iraq as a a country did absolutely nothing to us. Why should we free them and convert years of their way a life, into ours? Our country has a system, that works for us. But that doesn't mean its going to work for others. Unlike most countries, we don't one or two religions we go by as a nation. We have the freedom to choose what we are, who we are, and how we are. Other countries, have more religion based politics. They believe, as a nation, strongly in their one relgion whatever it may be. Who are we to go in and change their ways?
When in fact: Bush administration said that Saddam had no threat to us back in 2001. Then, all of a sudden after 9/11 they went after Saddam. Makes sense? Don't think so. Bin laden didn't get blamed i believe because of the bush-bin laden corp. connection. So he went after someone else but still backing up saying we are looking for bin laden. Which they did, but no where near as hard as Saddam. It makes no sense to me. This is why i don't want to fight this war. This is why i did not vote for Bush last voting term, and this is why i support our troops. They are fighting over there, for a reason unknown. But they still continue to thrive and do what they are told. That is major respect.
On the same note, a lot of soliders over there now do not plan to re-enlist. My thoughts? Probably because they think why they are there is bs and they keep being told they can leave in x amount of months, but never do. Its sad.
Cya
wibblywobbly
11-19-2005, 12:23 AM
Like it was said earlier, no one wins in a war
Yep....that's the truth right there. No matter how much money Lockheed Martin makes we all lose.
pinoyfitness
11-19-2005, 01:02 AM
Thank God for asthma.....nuff said.
LOL, i have ashtma. I got it waived... i was freaking out in the gas chamber though :silly:
pinoyfitness
11-19-2005, 01:04 AM
I believe all citizens should be required to serve 2 years of gov't service?
Armed Services,
Peace Corps,
Americorps,
etc.
It would teach them to appreciate the freedom they have now, thanks to past draftees and volunteers. :clap:
Now drop and give me ten. :P
ditto
Placebo
11-19-2005, 03:07 AM
They have been talking about the draft thing for a while I remember people saying that in june 05 if bush is still in office there will be a draft. The U.S even signed something with Canada saying not to take us in and nothing ever happened.
I wish they would push Peace Corps and Americorps as much as they push the Military. Alot of people go into the Military to pay for college thinking its the only way and end up screwed up.
Military is good? No! They barely give you enough money. Once you come back you will be all mentaly screwed up. Some people have lost limbs and have been forgotten by the govt.
Appreciate freedom by being REQUIRED to join govt services??? WTF? If anything that would make me realize how full of crap this country is and make me want to move to Canada.
I just love how you guys throw the word "Freedom" around. But think about this logically it may seem we are free but are we really?
Maybe you guys need to travel around the world and you will find the answer.
Gonzo_xb
11-19-2005, 05:42 AM
there was legislation in congress last year to reinstate the draft. It was overwhelmingly defeated. Here is a link...
Click Here (http://wwws.house.gov/search97cgi/s97_cgi/view.jsp?k2dockey=http%3A%2F%2Farmedservices.house.gov%2Fpressreleases%2F2004%2FMilitarydraft-HunterStmt10-5-04.pdf%40comms&QueryText=HR%20163&MimeType=application/pdf&docURL=http%3A%2F%2Farmedservices.house.gov%2Fpressreleases%2F2004%2FMilitarydraft-HunterStmt10-5-04.pdf)
It mentions the only way a draft would come back would be if we were unable to recruit enough people. And I believe the army has been consistently falling short of its recruitng goals... so who knows... anything could happen.
or you can go to http://thomas.loc.gov/ and do a search on bill# HR 163
{edited to clean up super long URL --Tomas}
killerxromances
11-19-2005, 06:45 AM
there was legislation in congress last year to reinstate the draft. It was overwhelmingly defeated. Here is a link...
Click Here (http://wwws.house.gov/search97cgi/s97_cgi/view.jsp?k2dockey=http%3A%2F%2Farmedservices.house.gov%2Fpressreleases%2F2004%2FMilitarydraft-HunterStmt10-5-04.pdf%40comms&QueryText=HR%20163&MimeType=application/pdf&docURL=http%3A%2F%2Farmedservices.house.gov%2Fpressreleases%2F2004%2FMilitarydraft-HunterStmt10-5-04.pdf)
It mentions the only way a draft would come back would be if we were unable to recruit enough people. And I believe the army has been consistently falling short of its recruitng goals... so who knows... anything could happen.
or you can go to http://thomas.loc.gov/ and do a search on bill# HR 163
Yeah, they have. Theres a reason behind it too. Its not because people don't want to go, its because they think the administrations cause is bs. Which, in reality, it is. No matter how you look at it, nothing adds up to why we are still there. Supposidly, bush is coming up with a plan to start removing troops to back home. Our "job" is complete, theres no reason for us to still be there. The only reason why we are, supposidly is because we can't just openly leave Iraq without them being stable. Truth is, there are so many terrorist orgainsations it would take years, and years for Iraq to be considerably stable enough for us to move out. Thats how i see it. Iraq may never be stable enough really, there are so many mixed emotions and diverse takes on whats going on currently, its just insane. I hope they don't bring back the draft, not just for myself but for the others out there as well. People that haven't volunteered haven't for a reason. Either health issues, not a fan of war or just disagree with why we are there and don't feel the need to contribute to a never ending, never understanding cause. It would be so impractical to basically force kids to go there. I mean who wants to spend up to 5 years in prision (being its a federal case), or who has $250,000 to pay to not go? Average people don't. I know i don't. Unless there are payment plans. :rofl:
As for those believing just because people like me don't go, we aren't man enough or take freedom for granted. That is absolutely wrong. If i had a choice to go, i'd rather not but reality is i probably would. (under draft-related situations) That doesn't make me any less than a man. As for Bush, can't think of a single mistake hes had through his terms so far? He can't admit why we are there, the real reasons what ever they are? The only thing i agree with that hes done is, when he says he'll do something, he'll do it. The only problem is, what he says to me, doesn't make sense at all. It's almost like hes trying to finish what his father started. Maybe that makes me a bad person to think that, i'm not saying its true. But, you really can't help but wonder.
Gah, who knows. Some claim we will leave soon, some say will stay soon.
Cya
Tomas
11-19-2005, 07:20 AM
Quite seriously, a couple hundred thousand military folks from the other side of the planet (US
Military) are really unlikely to change the way that part of the world has been run for over 4000
years.
That area has always been run by assorted warlords and religious leaders each intent on their
own goals. This goes back to the very, very earliest of recorded history of the human race.
That sort of deep cultural and societal drive can NOT be changed by outsiders overnight. It
just isn't going to happen. Sorry.
What makes the shrub think that in a couple years a few people, who don't understand the
cultures or even the languages, can change that kind of history, culture, and society in any
significant way? Hubris!
The truth is, the shrub doesn't even understand the enormity of the problem he's stuck us,
uninvited, in the middle of. To add to his non-knowledge of history, and cultures, he has no
serious understanding if strategy, tactics or anything else military.
His best path would be to find the absolute best people he can in the disiplines involved, and
give them the job of doing the best we can within our means. Not every problem can be fixed
with just bailing wire, bubble gum, and bull____.
Anyway, back to the draft: If we continue along the path the shrub has us locked into, we will
need more quality 'volunteers' than will come knocking at his door. That means he must recruit
folks who don't WANT to be recruited. That means the return of the draft.
With a lot of luck that path will be changed and we won't have to go there.
(Just for interest, when I was in Viet Nam and finally got to know the people, I finally
understood that the vast majority of them didn't really care who won the war. They didn't care
what government they were under, or what 'system' that government professed. All they
wanted was for everyone else to go away and leave them alone so they could go back to living
quietly and honestly, raising rice and little babies. http://www.tijil.org/blog/?p=13)
Kremtok
11-19-2005, 09:30 AM
To play devil's advocate:
What about those whom belive/practice non-violence? Certainly we as a country have no more right to infringe upon their decision to that set of choices than anyone else's choices for whatever reason. Once we start forcing majority opinion/rule upon the minority, we become exactly what we are fighting, oppressors to personal/collective freedom.
IMO I agree with what a lot fo you have said. Freedom is not free. Military is for those physically/mentally capable of handling it, bla bla bla.
Since this is the only entirely new idea that has been presented, a response is warranted.
Violence is never desirable. Regardless of how you may feel now, if you were put in a situation in which you had the choice between your own life and someone else's, you would more likely than not choose your own life. It's a human instinct, and it's called self-preservation. However, you must understand that even in light of the recent conflicts in Iraq -- and my gosh, why has nobody mentioned Afghanistan or Lebanon or any of the other places Americans have fought and died in recent years? -- very few are forced to make this choice.
Arguably, nobody can be forced to do anything, only given a poor set of choices. Even putting that aside, we must remember again that nobody has been drafted into the US Military in a very long time. Furthermore, our selective service system is set up so that those who are legitimate conscientious objectors have the option to complete civil rather than military service. You and several others here understand that freedom is not free, and I agree with you that not all are well-suited for military service. Remember that there are other options.
If being called an American shames you in any way, then you should not live here. If you choose to remain in this country, you are accepting, if not endorsing, our laws, standards, and yes, even our political ideals. Let me close by reminding you all that our country is one that allows, if not complete personal freedom, at least enough that one has the option to leave the country if you do not believe that you should be bound by our laws. Personally, I'd rather you all stay and balance out those who believe we are superior by virtue or right. Since many are suggesting that our country would do well to remember the old adage that tells us more flies are caught with honey than with vinegar, let's consider that idea as citizens, too.
wibblywobbly
11-19-2005, 12:21 PM
The bill to bring back the draft last year was never going to be passed. It was introduced to make a political point. The supporters (Charlie Rangel was behind it, among others) basic thing was since there are a lot of poor people/minorities in the military right now (the have less opportunity than rich people, so they have fewer non-military options), bringing back the draft would ensure that rich people would share the burden of the war. (because they wouldn't find ways to avoid the draft....)
Serialk1llr
11-19-2005, 12:49 PM
You know, Kremtok, I had never even considered the option of concious(sp) objectors. Der, you'd think a history major would remember those kidns of details :doh:
Lots of goot points people are making. Here is something I am concerned by: over extension. And what I mean by that is our military becoming so spread thin that our presence becomes counterproductive. I've been saying for a few months now that Iran is next, and the rhetoric from the WHite House sometimes leans that direction, and somethimes does not. IMO, that would be opening a _enormous_ can of worms we are ill suited to handle form a logistics standpoint. What we really need, and I amd STILL trying to understand why this has not happened yet, is U.N. support. But I think we've long ago burned that bridge unfortunately.
Its my hope that any administration present and future learns from the past. Lets hope North Korea doesn't rattle the cage too much until this whole Iraq/Iran/Afghanistan finally concludes. WHich brings me to another point, occupation. EVen with minimal resistance, the SCAP occupation of Japan was what, 5-10 years? And that was without a culture declaring a Jihad on us. :nope:
I predict, in my infantile wisdom, we're in for a very -long- ride.